Why Your Gas Bill Jumped More Than Electricity in October 2026 — Despite 5% VAT Cut

If your October 2026 bill looks higher even after the government removed 5% VAT from electricity, you are not alone.

Ofgem’s new price cap from 1 October to 31 December 2026 is £1,723 for a typical dual-fuel Direct Debit household — up 4% from £1,663 in July.

But the rise is not even. Gas is up around 8%, electricity is almost flat thanks to the VAT removal. That’s why your gas heating feels like the culprit.

Why Gas Rose 8% and Electricity Didn’t

• Wholesale gas prices have been volatile since February 2026 and drive the gas unit rate directly
• Electricity unit rate was cushioned by the VAT removal on 1 October — saving ~£45 a year for a typical household
• The earlier removal of green levies from electricity (£150 saving) already happened, so that saving is not new this quarter
• Standing charges stayed similar for both fuels

Result: A household that uses more gas for heating sees a bigger jump than a flat that uses mostly electricity.

What This Means in Pounds

At October cap rates:

• Gas unit rate is the driver of the £60 rise in headline £1,723 figure
• If you are in a 2-adult house using more gas, your annual estimate is closer to £1,888 than £1,723 (based on DESNZ NEED 2024 data)
• A 2kW fan heater running 4 hours = ~£2 a day, £60 a month — far more than central gas heating on a thermostat at 18-19°C

What To Do Before January

Cornwall Insight forecasts a 16% rise in January 2027. Ofgem confirms the January-March 2027 cap by 25 November.

Checklist for today:

1. Check if you are on standard variable tariff — if yes, compare fixed deals now
2. Submit meter readings if you haven’t since 1 Oct
3. Bleed radiators and set thermostat to 18-19°C
4. Check boiler pressure (1-1.5 bar when cold)
5. Fix fridge freezer faults — see our guide: 5 Fridge Freezer Faults Spiking Your Bill After £1,723 Cap
6. If you get benefits, check Warm Home Discount £150 automatic payment — see: Warm Home Discount October 2026: Who Gets £150 Off Energy Bills Automatically

Quick FAQ

Will my bill be exactly £1,723? No. £1,723 is for typical use. Use more, pay more. Use less, pay less.

Did electricity get cheaper? Unit rate before VAT cut would have risen, but VAT removal keeps it roughly flat vs July. Gas is what pushed the total cap up.

Should I switch to electric heaters to save gas? No — direct electric heaters cost ∼50p per hour at October cap vs gas central heating which is cheaper per kWh of heat.